Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) Fair Value 2026

ALMR · Medical Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) trades at $24.95, approximately 278% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.61. QOC: 2.0/10. 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALMR
Price
$24.95
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $18.10, 27.4% below the current price of $24.95. Estimates range from $2.82 to $30.44. ALMR scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alamar Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($24.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $6.61 -73.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $17.86 -28.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $23.10 -7.4%
PWERM
Low Conviction
 $24.26 -2.8%

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What Is Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.66. Trading at its current price of $24.95, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -29.2%. The most optimistic model, Sentiment SOTP, places fair value at $30.44 (+22.0%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $2.82 (-88.7%). This +110.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ALMR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ALMR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ALMR's intrinsic value at $6.61, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALMR Rank in Medical Devices?

Among 10 Medical Devices stocks, ALMR ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s positioning within the Medical Devices segment means that biosimilar competition timeline plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including orphan drug designation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ALMR a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for ALMR. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Alamar Biosciences, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Alamar Biosciences, Inc. earns a quality score of 2.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALMR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALMR's 8 active models, average confidence is 2%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alamar Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Medical Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQOC 10.0AORTArtivion, Inc.QOC 7.5AHCOAdaptHealth Corp.QOC 7.2APYXApyx Medical CorporationQOC 6.4AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 5.7ADGMAdagio Medical Holdings, IncQOC 5.7AEMDAethlon Medical, Inc.QOC 4.9AMIXAutonomix Medical, Inc.QOC 4.1

Read investment analysis: ABT · AORT · AHCO · APYX · AIDX

Frequently Asked Questions About Alamar Biosciences, Inc.

What is Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.61. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALMR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $24.95, 1 of 8 active models suggest ALMR may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $18.10, 27.4% below the current price of $24.95 — a consensus view that ALMR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s business model in Medical Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for ALMR?

Alamar Biosciences, Inc.'s QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALMR?

CirclFi analyzes ALMR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ALMR a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for ALMR at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alamar Biosciences, Inc. (ALMR) has a median fair value of $18.10 — 27.4% below the current price of $24.95 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALMR/ · Methodology

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