SWBI vs VSEC

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. vs VSE Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — SWBI scores higher on quality with 7.7/10 vs VSEC's 6.4/10. SWBI trades at $15.31 while VSEC trades at $180.19. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

SWBI

Aerospace & Defense
Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.
Quality
7.7
out of 10
Value Trap
26
LOW
Price
$15.31
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

VSEC

Aerospace & Defense
VSE Corporation
Quality
6.4
out of 10
Value Trap
34
LOW
Price
$180.19
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
SWBI
Bayesian DCF sees +150.8% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
VSEC
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

SWBI vs VSEC — Fair Value Comparison

SWBI
$0$15$30$45 Price$15.31 Bayesian …$38.39 (+150.8%) Earnings …$2.72 (-82.3%)
VSEC
$0$71$142$213 Price$180.19 Bayesian …$33.09 (-81.6%) Earnings …$74.29 (-58.8%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType SWBI Fair ValueSWBI Upside VSEC Fair ValueVSEC Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $38.39 +150.8% $33.09 -81.6%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $2.72 -82.3% $74.29 -58.8%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

SWBI vs VSEC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

SWBI scores higher with a 7.7/10 quality rating vs VSEC's 6.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do SWBI and VSEC Valuations Compare?

At $15.31, SWBI trades +150.8% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $38.39, while VSEC at $180.19 trades +81.6% above its estimate of $33.09. SWBI shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: SWBI vs VSEC

SWBI earns a Quality of Company score of 7.7/10 compared to VSEC's 6.4/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: SWBI vs VSEC

SWBI carries a LOW value trap risk (26/100) while VSEC shows LOW risk (34/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Aerospace & Defense

Both SWBI and VSEC operate in Aerospace & Defense, which has 77 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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