RDW vs RTX

Redwire Corporation vs RTX Corporation — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — RDW scores higher on quality with 6.5/10 vs RTX's 5.1/10. RDW trades at $20.58 while RTX trades at $174.26. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

RDW

Aerospace & Defense
Redwire Corporation
Quality
6.5
out of 10
Value Trap
43
WARN
Price
$20.58
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

RTX

Aerospace & Defense
RTX Corporation
Quality
5.1
out of 10
Value Trap
36
LOW
Price
$174.26
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
RDW
2 models active
Value Trap 43/100 — caution
RTX
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

RDW vs RTX — Fair Value Comparison

RDW
$0$8$16$24 Price$20.58 Bayesian …$3.34 (-83.8%) Earnings …$0.57 (-93.9%)
RTX
$0$69$137$206 Price$174.26 Bayesian …$15.95 (-90.8%) Earnings …$33.08 (-81.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType RDW Fair ValueRDW Upside RTX Fair ValueRTX Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $3.34 -83.8% $15.95 -90.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $0.57 -93.9% $33.08 -81.0%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

RDW vs RTX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

RDW scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs RTX's 5.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do RDW and RTX Valuations Compare?

At $20.58, RDW trades +83.8% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.34, while RTX at $174.26 trades +90.8% above its estimate of $15.95. RTX shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: RDW vs RTX

RDW earns a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 compared to RTX's 5.1/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: RDW vs RTX

RDW carries a WARN value trap risk (43/100) while RTX shows LOW risk (36/100). Stocks with value trap scores above 40 may appear undervalued but face deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue can make the apparent discount a trap.

Both in Aerospace & Defense

Both RDW and RTX operate in Aerospace & Defense, which has 77 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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