LUNR vs MDA

Intuitive Machines, Inc. vs MDA Space Ltd. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — LUNR scores higher on quality with 4.6/10 vs MDA's 1.7/10. LUNR trades at $39.57 while MDA trades at $42.88. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

LUNR

Aerospace & Defense
Intuitive Machines, Inc.
Quality
4.6
out of 10
Value Trap
26
LOW
Price
$39.57
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

MDA

Aerospace & Defense
MDA Space Ltd.
Quality
1.7
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$42.88
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
LUNR
2 models active
Quality 4.6/10 — below average
MDA
2 models active
Quality 1.7/10 — below average

LUNR vs MDA — Fair Value Comparison

LUNR
$0$16$31$47 Price$39.57 Bayesian …$11.54 (-70.8%) Earnings …$11.87 (-53.5%)
MDA
$0$17$34$51 Price$42.88 Bayesian …$12.40 (-71.1%) Earnings …$14.03 (-56.5%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType LUNR Fair ValueLUNR Upside MDA Fair ValueMDA Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $11.54 -70.8% $12.40 -71.1%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $11.87 -53.5% $14.03 -56.5%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

LUNR vs MDA — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

LUNR scores higher with a 4.6/10 quality rating vs MDA's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do LUNR and MDA Valuations Compare?

At $39.57, LUNR trades +70.8% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $11.54, while MDA at $42.88 trades +71.1% above its estimate of $12.40. MDA shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: LUNR vs MDA

LUNR earns a Quality of Company score of 4.6/10 compared to MDA's 1.7/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: LUNR vs MDA

Review the value trap analysis for both LUNR and MDA to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Aerospace & Defense

Both LUNR and MDA operate in Aerospace & Defense, which has 77 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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