LMT vs LUNR

Lockheed Martin Corporation vs Intuitive Machines, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — LMT scores higher on quality with 8.4/10 vs LUNR's 4.6/10. LMT trades at $513.43 while LUNR trades at $39.57. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

LMT

Aerospace & Defense
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Quality
8.4
out of 10
Value Trap
14
SAFE
Price
$513.43
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

LUNR

Aerospace & Defense
Intuitive Machines, Inc.
Quality
4.6
out of 10
Value Trap
26
LOW
Price
$39.57
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
LMT
Quality Score 8.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
LUNR
2 models active
Quality 4.6/10 — below average

LMT vs LUNR — Fair Value Comparison

LMT
$0$202$404$606 Price$513.43 Bayesian …$286.07 (-44.3%) Earnings …$123.03 (-76.0%)
LUNR
$0$16$31$47 Price$39.57 Bayesian …$11.54 (-70.8%) Earnings …$11.87 (-53.5%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType LMT Fair ValueLMT Upside LUNR Fair ValueLUNR Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $286.07 -44.3% $11.54 -70.8%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $123.03 -76.0% $11.87 -53.5%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

LMT vs LUNR — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

LMT scores higher with a 8.4/10 quality rating vs LUNR's 4.6/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do LMT and LUNR Valuations Compare?

At $513.43, LMT trades +44.3% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $286.07, while LUNR at $39.57 trades +70.8% above its estimate of $11.54. LUNR shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: LMT vs LUNR

LMT earns a Quality of Company score of 8.4/10 compared to LUNR's 4.6/10. This is a significant quality gap — the higher-scoring company demonstrates materially stronger fundamentals across profitability, growth consistency, and balance sheet health. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: LMT vs LUNR

LMT carries a SAFE value trap risk (14/100) while LUNR shows LOW risk (26/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Aerospace & Defense

Both LMT and LUNR operate in Aerospace & Defense, which has 77 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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