AXON vs BWXT

Axon Enterprise, Inc. vs BWX Technologies, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — BWXT scores higher on quality with 9.4/10 vs AXON's 8.9/10. AXON trades at $490.12 while BWXT trades at $187.26. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

AXON

Aerospace & Defense
Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Quality
8.9
out of 10
Value Trap
11
SAFE
Price
$490.12
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

BWXT

Aerospace & Defense
BWX Technologies, Inc.
Quality
9.4
out of 10
Value Trap
Price
$187.26
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
AXON
Quality Score 8.9/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models
BWXT
Quality Score 9.4/10 — top tier
Limited to 2/13 visible models

AXON vs BWXT — Fair Value Comparison

AXON
$0$193$386$578 Price$490.12 Bayesian …$9.43 (-97.6%) Earnings …$13.52 (-96.6%)
BWXT
$0$74$147$221 Price$187.26 Bayesian …$7.03 (-96.7%) EROIC Spr…$23.27 (-89.2%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType AXON Fair ValueAXON Upside BWXT Fair ValueBWXT Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $9.43 -97.6% $7.03 -96.7%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $13.52 -96.6%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $53.02 -89.2% $23.27 -89.2%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

AXON vs BWXT — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

BWXT scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs AXON's 8.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do AXON and BWXT Valuations Compare?

At $490.12, AXON trades +97.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $9.43, while BWXT at $187.26 trades +96.7% above its estimate of $7.03. AXON shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: AXON vs BWXT

AXON earns a Quality of Company score of 8.9/10 compared to BWXT's 9.4/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: AXON vs BWXT

Review the value trap analysis for both AXON and BWXT to assess whether apparent undervaluation reflects genuine opportunity or hidden fundamental risk.

Both in Aerospace & Defense

Both AXON and BWXT operate in Aerospace & Defense, which has 77 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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