Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) Fair Value 2026

TIL · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) trades at $7.62, approximately 234% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.28. QOC: 4.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TIL
Price
$7.62
Quality Score
4.2/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +61.3% upside with 14% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.2/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $7.37, within 3.2% of the current price of $7.62. Estimates range from $2.28 to $12.29. TIL scores 4.2/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Instil Bio, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.28 -70.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $6.26 -17.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $12.29 +61.3%

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What Is Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Instil Bio, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $7.62. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $7.14 (-6.3% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $12.29 (+61.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $2.28 (-70.1%). This +131.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TIL?

7 of 13 models are currently active for TIL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TIL's intrinsic value at $2.28, implying -70.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TIL Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, TIL ranks #111 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.2 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Instil Bio, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TIL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TIL a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Instil Bio, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Instil Bio, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 4.2/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TIL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TIL's 7 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Instil Bio, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Instil Bio, Inc.

What is Instil Bio, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.28. The Quality of Company score is 4.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TIL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.62, 3 of 7 active models suggest TIL may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $7.37, within 3.2% of the current price of $7.62 — a consensus view that TIL is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Instil Bio, Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.2 mean for TIL?

Instil Bio, Inc.'s QOC of 4.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TIL?

CirclFi analyzes TIL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TIL a value trap in 2026?

Instil Bio, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Instil Bio, Inc. (TIL) has a median fair value of $7.37 — within 3.2% of the current price of $7.62 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TIL/ · Methodology

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