Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Fair Value 2026

PANW · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) trades at $419.91, versus a $54.26 median fair value across its 8 active models — 87.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $115.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
PANW
Price
$419.91
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $54.26, 87.1% below the current price of $419.91. Estimates range from $25.46 to $115.28. PANW scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. PANW’s -87.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -25.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PANW?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($419.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $115.28 -72.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $57.70 -86.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $50.83 -87.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $25.46 -93.9%
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What Is PANW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $25.46 to $115.28

CirclFi's 8 active models place Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) between $25.46 and $115.28 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $54.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PANW, against a current price of $419.91.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$25.46median $54.26$115.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$25.46
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$115.28
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PANW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PANW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $54.26. Trading at its current price of $419.91, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -87.1%. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PANW?

8 of 13 models are currently active for PANW. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for PANW is $54.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $115.28 on its own, implying -72.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PANW Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 187 Software - Infrastructure stocks, PANW ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places PANW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Palo Alto Networks, Inc., metrics like customer acquisition cost (CAC) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is PANW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PANW a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Palo Alto Networks, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. scores 8.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+21.4% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PANW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PANW's 8 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Palo Alto Networks, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

PAYOPayoneer Global Inc.QOC 8.5GENGen Digital Inc.QOC 8.4GCTGigaCloud Technology Inc.QOC 8.6FIVNFive9, Inc.QOC 8.4PAYSPaysign, Inc.QOC 8.6YEXTYext, Inc.QOC 8.4SABRSabre CorporationQOC 7.0ORIOOrion Digital Corp.QOC 5.4HQHorizon Quantum Holdings Ltd.QOC 3.5FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PAYO · GEN · GCT · FIVN · PAYS · YEXT · SABR · ORIO · HQ · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PANW?

7 companies across all industries closest to PANW’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.5XPOXPO, Inc.QOC 8.5PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.5KEXKirby CorporationQOC 8.4ISBAIsabella Bank CorporationQOC 8.5CKXCKX Lands, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CBSH · XPO · PYPL · KEX · ISBA · CKX · NVDA

Where Does PANW Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

PANW is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Palo Alto Networks, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)'s intrinsic value at $54.26 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $25.46 to $115.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $115.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PANW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $419.91, 0 of 8 active models suggest PANW may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $54.26, 87.1% below the current price of $419.91 — a consensus view that PANW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for PANW?

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PANW?

CirclFi analyzes PANW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PANW?

Of the 8 models currently active on PANW, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $115.28 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $25.46. CirclFi's published fair value for PANW is the median of that range, $54.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PANW a value trap in 2026?

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) has a median fair value of $54.26 — 87.1% below the current price of $419.91 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PANW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PANW valuation
  • Financial statements: Palo Alto Networks, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001327567) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PANW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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