Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) Fair Value 2026

ONBPO · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) trades at $25.04, approximately 11% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $22.56. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONBPO
Price
$25.04
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +84.6% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $22.56, within 9.9% of the current price of $25.04. Estimates range from $7.14 to $114.17. ONBPO scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Old National Bancorp - Deposita Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$22.56 -9.9%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$7.14 -71.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$46.23 +84.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$33.56 +34.0%

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What Is Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Old National Bancorp - Deposita's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $31.73. Trading at $25.04, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +26.7%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +355.9% (fair value: $114.17), while EPV is the most conservative at -71.5% ($7.14). The spread between these extremes — +427.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ONBPO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ONBPO. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ONBPO's intrinsic value at $22.56, implying -9.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONBPO Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 88 National Commercial Banks stocks, ONBPO ranks #73 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

Old National Bancorp - Deposita's positioning within the National Commercial Banks segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ONBPO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONBPO a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Old National Bancorp - Deposita. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Old National Bancorp - Deposita scores 5.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +427.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONBPO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONBPO's 11 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Old National Bancorp - Deposita Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CBNA · CARE · SHBI · WABC · FSUN

See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Old National Bancorp - Deposita

What is Old National Bancorp - Deposita's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $22.56. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONBPO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.04, 3 of 11 active models suggest ONBPO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $22.56, within 9.9% of the current price of $25.04 — a consensus view that ONBPO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Old National Bancorp - Deposita's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for ONBPO?

Old National Bancorp - Deposita's QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONBPO?

CirclFi analyzes ONBPO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ONBPO a value trap in 2026?

Old National Bancorp - Deposita's Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Old National Bancorp - Deposita (ONBPO) has a median fair value of $22.56 — within 9.9% of the current price of $25.04 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONBPO/ · Methodology

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