Northern Trust Corporation - De (NTRSO) Fair Value 2026

NTRSO · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Northern Trust Corporation - De (NTRSO) trades at $18.60. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NTRSO
Price
$18.60
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +455.1% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$69.33 +272.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$103.25 +455.1%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$14.46 -22.2%

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What Is Northern Trust Corporation - De (NTRSO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northern Trust Corporation - De's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $58.85. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $18.60 (implied upside of +216.4%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 4 of 6 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +456.1% (fair value: $103.43), while EROIC is the most conservative at -62.0% ($7.06). The spread between these extremes — +518.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NTRSO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for NTRSO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NTRSO Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, NTRSO ranks #149 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Northern Trust Corporation - De, metrics like net interest margin (NIM) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NTRSO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NTRSO a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Northern Trust Corporation - De. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Northern Trust Corporation - De earns a quality score of 6.8/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +518.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NTRSO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NTRSO's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Northern Trust Corporation - De Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Northern Trust Corporation - De

What is Northern Trust Corporation - De's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Northern Trust Corporation - De (NTRSO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NTRSO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.60, 4 of 6 active models suggest NTRSO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Northern Trust Corporation - De's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for NTRSO?

Northern Trust Corporation - De's QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NTRSO?

CirclFi analyzes NTRSO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NTRSO a value trap in 2026?

Northern Trust Corporation - De's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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