Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Fair Value 2026

MESO · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Mesoblast Limited (MESO) trades at $17.44. QOC: 2.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MESO
Price
$17.44
Quality Score
2.3/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MESO?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $2.32 -86.7%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mesoblast Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $2.32. Trading at its current price of $17.44, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 1 of 1 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -86.7%.

What Do the Models Say About MESO?

1 of 13 models are currently active for MESO. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MESO Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, MESO ranks #612 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Mesoblast Limited's positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that R&D burn rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including breakthrough therapy designations — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MESO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MESO a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for Mesoblast Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mesoblast Limited earns a quality score of 2.3/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MESO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MESO's 1 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mesoblast Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

EVAXEvaxion A/SQOC 2.4VRAXVirax Biolabs Group LimitedQOC 2.3EPRXEupraxia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 2.4QNTMQuantum BioPharma Ltd.QOC 2.3TLSATiziana Life Sciences LtdQOC 2.5EVGNEvogene Ltd.QOC 2.2VALNValneva SEQOC 6.0CVKDCadrenal Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.1ELTXElicio Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: EVAX · VRAX · EPRX · QNTM · TLSA · EVGN · VALN · CVKD · ELTX · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MESO?

5 companies across all industries closest to MESO’s Quality of Company score of 2.3/10.

NIPGNIP Group Inc.QOC 2.3LBGJLi Bang International Corporation Inc.QOC 2.3GENIGenius Sports LimitedQOC 2.3STAKSTAK Inc.QOC 2.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NIPG · LBGJ · GENI · STAK · NVDA

Where Does MESO Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

MESO is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mesoblast Limited’s Valuation?

What is Mesoblast Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for Mesoblast Limited (MESO). The Quality of Company score is 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MESO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.44, 0 of 1 active models suggest MESO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mesoblast Limited's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.3 mean for MESO?

Mesoblast Limited's QOC of 2.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MESO?

CirclFi analyzes MESO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MESO a value trap in 2026?

Mesoblast Limited's Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns Mesoblast Limited (MESO) a Quality of Company score of 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MESO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MESO valuation
  • Financial statements: Mesoblast Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001345099) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MESO as of ; valuations recomputed .