Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Fair Value 2026

MESO · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, Mesoblast Limited (MESO) trades at $17.86, approximately 329% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.17. QOC: 2.0/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MESO
Price
$17.86
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +19.4% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mesoblast Limited (MESO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $5.07, 71.6% below the current price of $17.86. Estimates range from $1.09 to $21.32. MESO scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mesoblast Limited Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.86)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $4.17 -76.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $6.54 -63.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $7.41 -58.5%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $21.32 +19.4%

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What Is Mesoblast Limited (MESO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mesoblast Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $7.74. Trading at its current price of $17.86, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -56.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $21.32 (+19.4%), versus Regime Cross at $1.09 (-93.9%). This +113.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MESO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MESO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MESO's intrinsic value at $4.17, implying -76.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MESO Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, MESO ranks #136 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Mesoblast Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MESO a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MESO. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Mesoblast Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mesoblast Limited earns a quality score of 2.0/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +113.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MESO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MESO's 11 active models, average confidence is 10%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mesoblast Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Mesoblast Limited

What is Mesoblast Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Mesoblast Limited (MESO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.17. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MESO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.86, 1 of 11 active models suggest MESO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $5.07, 71.6% below the current price of $17.86 — a consensus view that MESO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mesoblast Limited's business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for MESO?

Mesoblast Limited's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MESO?

CirclFi analyzes MESO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MESO a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MESO at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Mesoblast Limited (MESO) has a median fair value of $5.07 — 71.6% below the current price of $17.86 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MESO/ · Methodology

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