Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) Fair Value 2026

MDV · Real Estate Investment Trusts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) trades at $17.66, approximately 64% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $48.53. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDV
Price
$17.66
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +174.7% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $16.68, within 5.6% of the current price of $17.66. Estimates range from $0.92 to $48.53. MDV scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Modiv Industrial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$48.53 +174.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$18.21 +3.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$22.87 +29.5%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$12.93 -26.8%

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What Is Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $15.69, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $17.67. While the average implied return is -11.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +269.5% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $48.53 (+174.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $0.92 (-94.8%). This +269.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MDV?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MDV. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MDV's intrinsic value at $48.53, implying +174.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDV Rank in Real Estate Investment Trusts?

Among 182 Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks, MDV ranks #128 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks →

Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts space, Modiv Industrial, Inc. competes in an environment where funds from operations (FFO) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is MDV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDV a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Modiv Industrial, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +269.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDV's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Modiv Industrial, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Real Estate Investment Trusts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Modiv Industrial, Inc.

What is Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $48.53. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.66, 6 of 12 active models suggest MDV may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $16.68, within 5.6% of the current price of $17.66 — a consensus view that MDV is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s business model in Real Estate Investment Trusts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for MDV?

Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDV?

CirclFi analyzes MDV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDV a value trap in 2026?

Modiv Industrial, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Modiv Industrial, Inc. (MDV) has a median fair value of $16.68 — within 5.6% of the current price of $17.66 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDV/ · Methodology

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