Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) Fair Value 2026

KOD · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) trades at $42.42, approximately 524% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.80. QOC: 4.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KOD
Price
$42.42
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.2% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.74, 51.1% below the current price of $42.42. Estimates range from $1.21 to $55.66. KOD scores 4.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kodiak Sciences Inc Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $6.80 -84.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $23.98 -43.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $20.97 -50.6%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $55.66 +31.2%

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What Is Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kodiak Sciences Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at $22.17. Trading at its current price of $42.42, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -47.7%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $55.66 (+31.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.21 (-97.1%). This +128.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kodiak Sciences Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About KOD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for KOD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KOD's intrinsic value at $6.80, implying -84.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KOD Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 134 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, KOD ranks #81 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Kodiak Sciences Inc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KOD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KOD a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Kodiak Sciences Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Kodiak Sciences Inc earns a quality score of 4.9/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KOD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KOD's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kodiak Sciences Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 10.0HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 10.0NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences, Inc.QOC 10.0GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.QOC 9.7PLXProtalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. QOC 8.6BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 8.4IMCRImmunocore Holdings plcQOC 7.9TECHBio-Techne CorpQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Kodiak Sciences Inc

What is Kodiak Sciences Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.80. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KOD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.42, 2 of 10 active models suggest KOD may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.74, 51.1% below the current price of $42.42 — a consensus view that KOD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kodiak Sciences Inc's business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for KOD?

Kodiak Sciences Inc's QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KOD?

CirclFi analyzes KOD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KOD a value trap in 2026?

Kodiak Sciences Inc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Kodiak Sciences Inc (KOD) has a median fair value of $20.74 — 51.1% below the current price of $42.42 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KOD/ · Methodology

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