First Merchants Corporation - D (FRMEP) Fair Value 2026

FRMEP · National Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, First Merchants Corporation - D (FRMEP) trades at $25.80, approximately 73% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $95.30. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FRMEP
Price
$25.80
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +269.4% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $95.30 +269.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $32.34 +25.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $72.81 +182.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $67.84 +162.9%

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What Is First Merchants Corporation - D (FRMEP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for First Merchants Corporation - D. Trading at $25.80 against an estimated intrinsic value of $54.71, 9 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +112.1% on average. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $95.30 (+269.4%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $26.41 (+2.4%). This +267.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First Merchants Corporation - D's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FRMEP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FRMEP. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates FRMEP's intrinsic value at $95.30, implying +269.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FRMEP Rank in National Commercial Banks?

Among 90 National Commercial Banks stocks, FRMEP ranks #51 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places FRMEP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued National Commercial Banks Stocks →

The National Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For First Merchants Corporation - D, metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FRMEP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FRMEP a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for First Merchants Corporation - D. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Merchants Corporation - D earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +267.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FRMEP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FRMEP's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Merchants Corporation - D Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar National Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related National Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.6CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 9.6SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.6WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 9.4FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpQOC 9.3CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3FUNCFirstQOC 9.1CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CBNA · CARE · SHBI · WABC · FSUN

See all National Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Merchants Corporation - D

What is First Merchants Corporation - D's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Merchants Corporation - D (FRMEP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $95.30. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FRMEP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.80, 10 of 10 active models suggest FRMEP may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Merchants Corporation - D's business model in National Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for FRMEP?

First Merchants Corporation - D's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FRMEP?

CirclFi analyzes FRMEP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FRMEP a value trap in 2026?

First Merchants Corporation - D's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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