First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCO) Fair Value 2026

FCNCO · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCO) trades at $20.65. QOC: 8.2/10. 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FCNCO
Price
$20.65
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
PWERM
Low Conviction
 $0.23 -98.9%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Citizens BancShares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.23, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $20.65. With 1 out of 1 models flagging downside (-98.9% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About FCNCO?

1 of 13 models are currently active for FCNCO. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FCNCO Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 172 State Commercial Banks stocks, FCNCO ranks #85 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places FCNCO in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

As a financial institution, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates in a sector where deposit growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FCNCO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FCNCO a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for FCNCO. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for First Citizens BancShares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FCNCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FCNCO's 1 active models, average confidence is 5%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Citizens BancShares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

BSVNBank7 Corp.QOC 10.0OFGOFG BancorpQOC 9.8CZNCCitizens & Northern CorpQOC 9.7NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.6UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.4OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.2OVLYOak Valley Bancorp (CA)QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Citizens BancShares, Inc.

What is First Citizens BancShares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FCNCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.65, 0 of 1 active models suggest FCNCO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Citizens BancShares, Inc.'s business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for FCNCO?

First Citizens BancShares, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FCNCO?

CirclFi analyzes FCNCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FCNCO a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for FCNCO at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →