Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Fair Value 2026

DB · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Deutsche Bank AG (DB) trades at $35.64, approximately 1176% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.79. QOC: 6.9/10. 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DB
Price
$35.64
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +415.6% upside with 32% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($35.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$2.79 -92.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$11.64 -67.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$126.93 +256.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$183.75 +415.6%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Deutsche Bank AG's intrinsic value is estimated at $65.40, suggesting a +83.5% average upside from the current price of $35.64. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $183.75 (+415.6%), versus Bayesian DCF at $2.79 (-92.2%). This +507.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About DB?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DB. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DB's intrinsic value at $2.79, implying -92.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DB Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 172 State Commercial Banks stocks, DB ranks #146 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to lending environment businesses. For Deutsche Bank AG, metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DB a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for DB. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Deutsche Bank AG. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Deutsche Bank AG scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +507.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DB's 10 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Deutsche Bank AG Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Deutsche Bank AG

What is Deutsche Bank AG's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Deutsche Bank AG (DB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.79. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $35.64, 8 of 10 active models suggest DB may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Deutsche Bank AG's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for DB?

Deutsche Bank AG's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DB?

CirclFi analyzes DB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DB a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for DB at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on DB.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access