ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo (CNOBP) Fair Value 2026

CNOBP · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo (CNOBP) trades at $25.12, approximately 13% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $28.74. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CNOBP
Price
$25.12
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +67.7% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$28.74 +14.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$6.64 -73.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$42.12 +67.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$18.60 -26.0%

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What Is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo (CNOBP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's intrinsic value is estimated at $34.57, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $25.12. With an average implied return of +37.6% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +359.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +286.1% (fair value: $96.98), while EPV is the most conservative at -73.6% ($6.64). The spread between these extremes — +359.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CNOBP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CNOBP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CNOBP's intrinsic value at $28.74, implying +14.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CNOBP Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 172 State Commercial Banks stocks, CNOBP ranks #139 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's positioning within the State Commercial Banks segment means that return on tangible equity plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CNOBP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CNOBP a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +359.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CNOBP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CNOBP's 11 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo

What is ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo (CNOBP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $28.74. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CNOBP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.12, 5 of 11 active models suggest CNOBP may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for CNOBP?

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CNOBP?

CirclFi analyzes CNOBP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CNOBP a value trap in 2026?

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. - Depo's Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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