First Busey Corporation - Depos (BUSEP) Fair Value 2026

BUSEP · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, First Busey Corporation - Depos (BUSEP) trades at $25.90, approximately 48% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $49.52. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BUSEP
Price
$25.90
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +91.2% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$49.52 +91.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$14.51 -44.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$40.52 +56.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$43.37 +67.5%

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What Is First Busey Corporation - Depos (BUSEP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Busey Corporation - Depos's intrinsic value is estimated at $37.73, suggesting a +45.7% average upside from the current price of $25.90. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $83.80 (+223.6%), versus EPV at $14.51 (-44.0%). This +267.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BUSEP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BUSEP. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BUSEP's intrinsic value at $49.52, implying +91.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BUSEP Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 172 State Commercial Banks stocks, BUSEP ranks #122 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

Within the State Commercial Banks space, First Busey Corporation - Depos competes in an environment where non-performing loan ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BUSEP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BUSEP a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for First Busey Corporation - Depos. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, First Busey Corporation - Depos's fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +267.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BUSEP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BUSEP's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Busey Corporation - Depos Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BSVN · OFG · CZNC · NPB · UNTY

See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Busey Corporation - Depos

What is First Busey Corporation - Depos's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Busey Corporation - Depos (BUSEP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $49.52. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BUSEP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.90, 7 of 11 active models suggest BUSEP may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Busey Corporation - Depos's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for BUSEP?

First Busey Corporation - Depos's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BUSEP?

CirclFi analyzes BUSEP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BUSEP a value trap in 2026?

First Busey Corporation - Depos's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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