Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital (BPOPM) Fair Value 2026

BPOPM · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital (BPOPM) trades at $25.28, approximately 83% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $151.20. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BPOPM
Price
$25.28
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +498.1% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$151.20 +498.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$121.77 +381.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$41.47 +64.0%

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What Is Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital (BPOPM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $100.68. At a current market price of $25.28, 7 of 7 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +298.2%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +498.1% (fair value: $151.20), while First Chicago is the most conservative at +64.0% ($41.47). The spread between these extremes — +434.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BPOPM?

7 of 13 models are currently active for BPOPM. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates BPOPM's intrinsic value at $151.20, implying +498.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BPOPM Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, BPOPM ranks #106 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places BPOPM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's positioning within the State Commercial Banks segment means that CET1 capital ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BPOPM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BPOPM a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +434.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BPOPM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BPOPM's 7 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital

What is Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital (BPOPM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $151.20. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BPOPM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.28, 7 of 7 active models suggest BPOPM may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for BPOPM?

Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BPOPM?

CirclFi analyzes BPOPM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BPOPM a value trap in 2026?

Popular, Inc. - Popular Capital's Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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