Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) Fair Value 2026

BHRB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) trades at $71.71, versus a $57.03 median fair value across its 5 active models — 20.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BHRB
Price
$71.71
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $57.03, 20.5% below the current price of $71.71. Estimates range from $29.64 to $134.53. BHRB scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BHRB’s -20.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BHRB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $57.03 -20.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.64 -58.7%
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What Is BHRB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $29.64 to $134.53

CirclFi's 5 active models place Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) between $29.64 and $134.53 per share, a spread of 184% of the median. The median of that range — $57.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BHRB, against a current price of $71.71.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$29.64median $57.03$134.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$29.64
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$134.53
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BHRB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BHRB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.03. Trading at its current price of $71.71, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 4 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -20.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +87.6% (fair value: $134.53), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -58.7% ($29.64). The spread between these extremes — +146.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BHRB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BHRB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BHRB is $57.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BHRB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, BHRB ranks #233 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp., metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BHRB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BHRB a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +146.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BHRB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BHRB's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

LCNBLCNB Corp.QOC 7.8FMNBFarmers National Banc Corp.QOC 7.7STLESteele Bancorp Inc.QOC 7.8CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7USBU.S. BancorpQOC 7.8VBNKVersaBankQOC 7.7KFFBKentucky First Federal BancorpQOC 6.6BANFBancFirst CorporationQOC 8.5NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: LCNB · FMNB · STLE · CZWI · USB · VBNK · KFFB · BANF · NPB · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BHRB?

6 companies across all industries closest to BHRB’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.QOC 7.8EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8GHCGraham Holdings CompanyQOC 7.8SCHLScholastic CorporationQOC 7.8GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AGO · EYE · GHC · SCHL · GEO · NVDA

Where Does BHRB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BHRB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB)'s intrinsic value at $57.03 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $29.64 to $134.53. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BHRB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.71, 1 of 5 active models suggest BHRB may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $57.03, 20.5% below the current price of $71.71 — a consensus view that BHRB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for BHRB?

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BHRB?

CirclFi analyzes BHRB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BHRB?

Of the 5 models currently active on BHRB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $134.53 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $29.64. CirclFi's published fair value for BHRB is the median of that range, $57.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 184% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BHRB a value trap in 2026?

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp. (BHRB) has a median fair value of $57.03 — 20.5% below the current price of $71.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BHRB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BHRB valuation

Market data for BHRB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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