BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Fair Value 2026

BAFN · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) trades at $6.74, versus a $6.04 median fair value across its 2 active models — 10.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BAFN
Price
$6.74
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +60.9% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $6.04, 10.3% below the current price of $6.74. Estimates range from $1.25 to $10.84. BAFN scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BAFN’s -10.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BayFirst Financial Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BAFN?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.25 -81.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $10.84 +60.9%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BayFirst Financial Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $6.04, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $6.74. While the median implied return is -10.3%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +142.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $10.84 (+60.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.25 (-81.5%). This +142.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BayFirst Financial Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BAFN?

2 of 13 models are currently active for BAFN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BAFN is $6.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BAFN Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, BAFN ranks #313 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a banking sector, BayFirst Financial Corp. operates in a sector where net interest margin (NIM) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BAFN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BAFN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BAFN a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for BayFirst Financial Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, BayFirst Financial Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BAFN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BAFN's 2 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BayFirst Financial Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

EGBNEagle Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.8FGBIFirst Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.QOC 6.7BLXBladex Inc.QOC 6.8INBKFirst Internet BancorpQOC 6.7FDSBFifth District Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.8NEWTNewtekOne, Inc.QOC 6.7CBNKCapital Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2PEBKPeoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc.QOC 7.8ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: EGBN · FGBI · BLX · INBK · FDSB · NEWT · CBNK · GGAL · PEBK · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BAFN?

7 companies across all industries closest to BAFN’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

PROFProfound Medical Corp.QOC 6.8DBDeutsche Bank AktiengesellschaftQOC 6.8GOAIEva Live, Inc.QOC 6.8GRABGrab Holdings LimitedQOC 6.8RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8CSBRChampions Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PROF · DB · GOAI · GRAB · RXO · CSBR · NVDA

Where Does BAFN Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BAFN is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BayFirst Financial Corp.’s Valuation?

What is BayFirst Financial Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN)'s intrinsic value at $6.04 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.25 to $10.84. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BAFN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.74, 1 of 2 active models suggest BAFN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $6.04, 10.3% below the current price of $6.74 — a consensus view that BAFN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BayFirst Financial Corp.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for BAFN?

BayFirst Financial Corp.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BAFN?

CirclFi analyzes BAFN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BAFN a value trap in 2026?

BayFirst Financial Corp.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) has a median fair value of $6.04 — 10.3% below the current price of $6.74 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BAFN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BAFN valuation
  • Financial statements: BayFirst Financial Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001649739) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BAFN as of ; valuations recomputed .