BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Fair Value 2026

BAFN · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) trades at $5.40. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BAFN
Price
$5.40
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +344.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$24.00 +344.5%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$4.21 -22.0%

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What Is BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on BayFirst Financial Corp. at $5.40. With an estimated intrinsic value of $14.25 and 3 of 5 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +163.9%. The most optimistic model, EROIC, places fair value at $25.32 (+368.9%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $4.21 (-22.0%). This +390.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about BayFirst Financial Corp.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BAFN?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BAFN. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BAFN Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, BAFN ranks #155 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

As a banking sector, BayFirst Financial Corp. operates in a sector where net interest margin (NIM) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BAFN should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BAFN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BAFN a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for BayFirst Financial Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, BayFirst Financial Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +390.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BAFN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BAFN's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BayFirst Financial Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About BayFirst Financial Corp.

What is BayFirst Financial Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BayFirst Financial Corp. (BAFN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BAFN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.40, 4 of 5 active models suggest BAFN may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BayFirst Financial Corp.'s business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for BAFN?

BayFirst Financial Corp.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BAFN?

CirclFi analyzes BAFN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BAFN a value trap in 2026?

BayFirst Financial Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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