agilon health, inc. (AGL) Fair Value 2026

AGL · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, agilon health, inc. (AGL) trades at $116.21, approximately 560% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $17.62. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGL
Price
$116.21
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +284.7% upside with 21% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($116.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$17.62 -84.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$233.98 +101.3%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$447.06 +284.7%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
$5.72 -95.1%

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What Is agilon health, inc. (AGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, agilon health, inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $116.21. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $189.97 (+63.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $623.14 (+436.2%), versus ML-RIV at $5.72 (-95.1%). This +531.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AGL?

8 of 13 models are currently active for AGL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AGL's intrinsic value at $17.62, implying -84.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGL Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 7 Medical Care Facilities stocks, AGL ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

agilon health, inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGL a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for agilon health, inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, agilon health, inc. scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +531.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGL's 8 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy agilon health, inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ADUS · ARDT · ACHC · AMN · AMS

Frequently Asked Questions About agilon health, inc.

What is agilon health, inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, agilon health, inc. (AGL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $17.62. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $116.21, 3 of 8 active models suggest AGL may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits agilon health, inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for AGL?

agilon health, inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGL?

CirclFi analyzes AGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AGL a value trap in 2026?

agilon health, inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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