Is VIST or WDS more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) and Woodside Energy Group Limited (WDS) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. VIST has a Quality of Company score of 2.0/10 while WDS scores 8.3/10.

Which is a better buy — VIST or WDS?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do VIST and WDS valuations compare?

VIST at $74.20 and WDS at $21.83 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

VIST vs WDS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

VIST

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V.

Quality

2.0

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$74.20

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

WDS

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Woodside Energy Group Limited

Quality

8.3

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.83

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	VIST Fair Value	VIST Upside	WDS Fair Value	WDS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$34.67	-53.3%	$53.75	+146.2%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$40.86	-44.2%	$14.08	-35.5%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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VIST vs WDS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

WDS scores higher with a 8.3/10 quality rating vs VIST's 2.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) and Woodside Energy Group Limited (WDS) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

VIST currently trades at $74.20 with a QOC of 2.0/10, while WDS trades at $21.83 with a QOC of 8.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).