Is UPB or VALN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) and Valneva SE (VALN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UPB has a Quality of Company score of 5.9/10 while VALN scores 5.3/10.

Which is a better buy — UPB or VALN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UPB and VALN valuations compare?

UPB at $8.32 and VALN at $6.30 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UPB vs VALN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UPB

Biotechnology

Upstream Bio, Inc.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.32

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

VALN

Biotechnology

Valneva SE

Quality

5.3

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$6.30

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UPB Fair Value	UPB Upside	VALN Fair Value	VALN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.18	-61.8%	$1.34	-78.8%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$2.37	-55.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$5.79	-30.4%	$0.25	-96.1%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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UPB vs VALN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UPB scores higher with a 5.9/10 quality rating vs VALN's 5.3/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) and Valneva SE (VALN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UPB currently trades at $8.32 with a QOC of 5.9/10, while VALN trades at $6.30 with a QOC of 5.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).