Is UPB or URGN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) and UroGen Pharma Ltd. (URGN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UPB has a Quality of Company score of 5.9/10 while URGN scores 6.5/10.

Which is a better buy — UPB or URGN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UPB and URGN valuations compare?

UPB at $8.32 and URGN at $28.69 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UPB vs URGN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UPB

Biotechnology

Upstream Bio, Inc.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.32

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

URGN

Biotechnology

UroGen Pharma Ltd.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$28.69

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UPB Fair Value	UPB Upside	URGN Fair Value	URGN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$3.18	-61.8%	$7.27	-74.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$3.35	-85.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$5.79	-30.4%	$14.58	-40.7%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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UPB vs URGN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

URGN scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs UPB's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) and UroGen Pharma Ltd. (URGN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UPB currently trades at $8.32 with a QOC of 5.9/10, while URGN trades at $28.69 with a QOC of 6.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).