Is UFCS or WTM more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) and White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. UFCS has a Quality of Company score of 9.2/10 while WTM scores 8.7/10.

Which is a better buy — UFCS or WTM?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do UFCS and WTM valuations compare?

UFCS at $44.78 and WTM at $2084.31 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

UFCS vs WTM Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

UFCS

Insurance - Property & Casualty

United Fire Group, Inc

Quality

9.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$44.78

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

WTM

Insurance - Property & Casualty

White Mountains Insurance Group

Quality

8.7

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$2084.31

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	UFCS Fair Value	UFCS Upside	WTM Fair Value	WTM Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$66.30	+48.1%	$3424.46	+64.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$37.22	-16.9%	$1245.24	-42.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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UFCS vs WTM — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UFCS scores higher with a 9.2/10 quality rating vs WTM's 8.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) and White Mountains Insurance Group (WTM) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

UFCS currently trades at $44.78 with a QOC of 9.2/10, while WTM trades at $2084.31 with a QOC of 8.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).