Is TVRD or UPB more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) and Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TVRD has a Quality of Company score of 4.1/10 while UPB scores 5.9/10.

Which is a better buy — TVRD or UPB?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TVRD and UPB valuations compare?

TVRD at $3.49 and UPB at $8.32 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TVRD vs UPB Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TVRD

Biotechnology

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.

Quality

4.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$3.49

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

UPB

Biotechnology

Upstream Bio, Inc.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$8.32

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TVRD Fair Value	TVRD Upside	UPB Fair Value	UPB Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$2.17	-28.9%	$3.18	-61.8%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$3.04	-3.1%	$5.79	-30.4%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TVRD vs UPB — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UPB scores higher with a 5.9/10 quality rating vs TVRD's 4.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. (TVRD) and Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TVRD currently trades at $3.49 with a QOC of 4.1/10, while UPB trades at $8.32 with a QOC of 5.9/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).