TSBK vs UBCP

Timberland Bancorp, Inc. vs United Bancorp, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TSBK scores higher on quality with 9.0/10 vs UBCP's 7.7/10. TSBK trades at $40.87 while UBCP trades at $16.05. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TSBK

Banks - Regional
Timberland Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
9.0
out of 10
Value Trap
6
SAFE
Price
$40.87
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
VS

UBCP

Banks - Regional
United Bancorp, Inc.
Quality
7.7
out of 10
Value Trap
21
SAFE
Price
$16.05
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
TSBK
Earnings Power Value sees +94.8% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
UBCP
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

TSBK vs UBCP — Fair Value Comparison

TSBK
$0$31$63$94 Price$40.87 Bayesian …$55.69 (+36.3%) Earnings …$79.61 (+94.8%)
UBCP
$0$6$13$19 Price$16.05 Bayesian …$8.90 (-44.5%) Earnings …$11.64 (-27.4%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType TSBK Fair ValueTSBK Upside UBCP Fair ValueUBCP Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $55.69 +36.3% $8.90 -44.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $79.61 +94.8% $11.64 -27.4%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

TSBK vs UBCP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TSBK scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs UBCP's 7.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TSBK and UBCP Valuations Compare?

At $40.87, TSBK trades +36.3% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $55.69, while UBCP at $16.05 trades +44.5% above its estimate of $8.90. UBCP shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TSBK vs UBCP

TSBK earns a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 compared to UBCP's 7.7/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TSBK vs UBCP

TSBK carries a SAFE value trap risk (6/100) while UBCP shows SAFE risk (21/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Banks - Regional

Both TSBK and UBCP operate in Banks - Regional, which has 329 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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