Is TRX or VGZ more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares TRX Gold Corporation (TRX) and Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TRX has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while VGZ scores 5.0/10.

Which is a better buy — TRX or VGZ?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TRX and VGZ valuations compare?

TRX at $1.10 and VGZ at $2.32 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TRX vs VGZ Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TRX

Gold

TRX Gold Corporation

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$1.10

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

VGZ

Gold

Vista Gold Corp

Quality

5.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.32

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TRX Fair Value	TRX Upside	VGZ Fair Value	VGZ Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.29	-73.5%	$0.82	-64.7%
First Chicago	Scenario	$0.93	-14.5%	$2.81	+30.6%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.13	-87.8%	$0.54	-76.9%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TRX vs VGZ — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

VGZ scores higher with a 5.0/10 quality rating vs TRX's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing TRX Gold Corporation (TRX) and Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TRX currently trades at $1.10 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while VGZ trades at $2.32 with a QOC of 5.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).