Is TMQ or VGZ more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) and Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TMQ has a Quality of Company score of 4.5/10 while VGZ scores 5.0/10.

Which is a better buy — TMQ or VGZ?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TMQ and VGZ valuations compare?

TMQ at $4.63 and VGZ at $2.41 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TMQ vs VGZ Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TMQ

Gold and Silver Ores

Trilogy Metals Inc.

Quality

4.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$4.63

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

VGZ

Gold and Silver Ores

Vista Gold Corp

Quality

5.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.41

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TMQ Fair Value	TMQ Upside	VGZ Fair Value	VGZ Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.20	-74.1%	$0.77	-67.9%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.97	-79.0%	$0.54	-77.8%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TMQ vs VGZ — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

VGZ scores higher with a 5.0/10 quality rating vs TMQ's 4.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Trilogy Metals Inc. (TMQ) and Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TMQ currently trades at $4.63 with a QOC of 4.5/10, while VGZ trades at $2.41 with a QOC of 5.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).