Is TLYS or URBN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) and Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. TLYS has a Quality of Company score of 5.5/10 while URBN scores 9.0/10.

Which is a better buy — TLYS or URBN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do TLYS and URBN valuations compare?

TLYS at $4.57 and URBN at $74.85 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

TLYS vs URBN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

TLYS

Apparel Retail

Tilly's, Inc.

Quality

5.5

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$4.57

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

URBN

Apparel Retail

Urban Outfitters, Inc.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$74.85

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TLYS Fair Value	TLYS Upside	URBN Fair Value	URBN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.82	-55.5%	$17.67	-76.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$11.14	+153.1%	$23.87	-68.1%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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TLYS vs URBN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

URBN scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs TLYS's 5.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) and Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

TLYS currently trades at $4.57 with a QOC of 5.5/10, while URBN trades at $74.85 with a QOC of 9.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).