TLRY vs XERS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

Quick Summary — XERS scores higher on quality with 8.6/10 vs TLRY's 6.8/10. TLRY trades at $5.38 while XERS trades at $6.00. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TLRY

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Tilray Brands, Inc.

Quality

6.8

out of 10

Value Trap

45

WARN

Price

$5.38

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

VS

XERS

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

35

LOW

Price

$6.00

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

TLRY

Dynamic NAV sees +32.1% upside

Value Trap 45/100 — caution

XERS

Quality Score 8.6/10 — top tier

Limited to 2/13 visible models

TLRY vs XERS — Fair Value Comparison

TLRY

XERS

Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	TLRY Fair Value	TLRY Upside	XERS Fair Value	XERS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.53	-71.5%	$1.41	-76.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$0.12	-98.0%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$7.11	+32.1%	—	—
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

TLRY vs XERS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

XERS scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs TLRY's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TLRY and XERS Valuations Compare?

At $5.38, TLRY trades +71.5% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.53, while XERS at $6.00 trades +76.5% above its estimate of $1.41. XERS shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TLRY vs XERS

TLRY earns a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 compared to XERS's 8.6/10. This moderate difference suggests one company has an edge in fundamental quality, though both may offer investment merit depending on valuation. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TLRY vs XERS

TLRY carries a WARN value trap risk (45/100) while XERS shows LOW risk (35/100). Stocks with value trap scores above 40 may appear undervalued but face deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue can make the apparent discount a trap.

Both in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Both TLRY and XERS operate in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic, which has 79 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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TLRY

View Full Tilray Brands, Inc. Analysis →

XERS

View Full Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. Analysis →

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