Is THG or UFCS more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) and United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. THG has a Quality of Company score of 9.0/10 while UFCS scores 9.2/10.

Which is a better buy — THG or UFCS?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do THG and UFCS valuations compare?

THG at $187.39 and UFCS at $44.78 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

THG vs UFCS Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

THG

Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hanover Insurance Group Inc

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$187.39

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

UFCS

Insurance - Property & Casualty

United Fire Group, Inc

Quality

9.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$44.78

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	THG Fair Value	THG Upside	UFCS Fair Value	UFCS Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$277.95	+48.3%	$66.30	+48.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$159.75	-14.8%	$37.22	-16.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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THG vs UFCS — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UFCS scores higher with a 9.2/10 quality rating vs THG's 9.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG) and United Fire Group, Inc (UFCS) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

THG currently trades at $187.39 with a QOC of 9.0/10, while UFCS trades at $44.78 with a QOC of 9.2/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).