TAK vs TLRY

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L vs Tilray Brands, Inc. — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-03 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — TAK scores higher on quality with 7.4/10 vs TLRY's 6.8/10. TAK trades at $15.18 while TLRY trades at $5.38. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

TAK

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L
Quality
7.4
out of 10
Value Trap
39
LOW
Price
$15.18
Last close
Models
12/13
Active
VS

TLRY

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Tilray Brands, Inc.
Quality
6.8
out of 10
Value Trap
45
WARN
Price
$5.38
Last close
Models
10/13
Active
TAK
Bayesian DCF sees +135.7% upside
Limited to 2/13 visible models
TLRY
Dynamic NAV sees +32.1% upside
Value Trap 45/100 — caution

TAK vs TLRY — Fair Value Comparison

TAK
$0$14$28$42 Price$15.18 Bayesian …$35.78 (+135.7%) Earnings …$21.35 (+40.7%)
TLRY
$0$3$6$8 Price$5.38 Bayesian …$1.53 (-71.5%) Dynamic N…$7.11 (+32.1%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType TAK Fair ValueTAK Upside TLRY Fair ValueTLRY Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $35.78 +135.7% $1.53 -71.5%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $21.35 +40.7%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $7.11 +32.1%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

TAK vs TLRY — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

TAK scores higher with a 7.4/10 quality rating vs TLRY's 6.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do TAK and TLRY Valuations Compare?

At $15.18, TAK trades +135.7% below its Bayesian DCF fair value of $35.78, while TLRY at $5.38 trades +71.5% above its estimate of $1.53. TAK shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: TAK vs TLRY

TAK earns a Quality of Company score of 7.4/10 compared to TLRY's 6.8/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: TAK vs TLRY

TAK carries a LOW value trap risk (39/100) while TLRY shows WARN risk (45/100). Stocks with value trap scores above 40 may appear undervalued but face deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue can make the apparent discount a trap.

Both in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Both TAK and TLRY operate in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic, which has 79 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

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