Is SUPN or TAK more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. SUPN has a Quality of Company score of 7.8/10 while TAK scores 7.4/10.

Which is a better buy — SUPN or TAK?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do SUPN and TAK valuations compare?

SUPN at $46.85 and TAK at $16.15 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

SUPN vs TAK Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

SUPN

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Quality

7.8

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$46.85

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

TAK

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$16.15

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	SUPN Fair Value	SUPN Upside	TAK Fair Value	TAK Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$17.17	-63.4%	$36.28	+124.6%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$16.57	-64.6%	$21.75	+34.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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SUPN vs TAK — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

SUPN scores higher with a 7.8/10 quality rating vs TAK's 7.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SUPN) and Takeda Pharmaceutical Company L (TAK) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

SUPN currently trades at $46.85 with a QOC of 7.8/10, while TAK trades at $16.15 with a QOC of 7.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).