STAG vs STWD

Stag Industrial, Inc. vs STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S — Valuation Comparison 2026

By CirclFi Research Team · Updated 2026-06-01 · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quick Summary — STAG scores higher on quality with 6.8/10 vs STWD's 6.5/10. STAG trades at $36.73 while STWD trades at $16.80. Both analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR data across 13 institutional models.

STAG

Real Estate Investment Trusts
Stag Industrial, Inc.
Quality
6.8
out of 10
Value Trap
24
SAFE
Price
$36.73
Last close
Models
13/13
Active
VS

STWD

Real Estate Investment Trusts
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S
Quality
6.5
out of 10
Value Trap
22
SAFE
Price
$16.80
Last close
Models
11/13
Active
STAG
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models
STWD
2 models active
Limited to 2/13 visible models

STAG vs STWD — Fair Value Comparison

STAG
$0$14$29$43 Price$36.73 Bayesian …$14.10 (-61.6%) Earnings …$2.41 (-93.8%)
STWD
$0$7$13$20 Price$16.80 Bayesian …$3.20 (-80.9%) Earnings …$3.86 (-77.0%)
Market Price Model 1 Model 2

Model-by-Model Comparison

ModelType STAG Fair ValueSTAG Upside STWD Fair ValueSTWD Upside
Bayesian DCF Intrinsic $14.10 -61.6% $3.20 -80.9%
Earnings Power Value Intrinsic $2.41 -93.8% $3.86 -77.0%
EROIC Spread Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
First Chicago Scenario $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Markov DDM Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
ML-RIV Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Dynamic NAV Asset-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
PWERM Option-Based $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
Sentiment SOTP Hybrid $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
CUCE Ensemble Ensemble $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
FTNN Topology Relative $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%
RCMH-DCF Intrinsic $•••.•• ••.•% $•••.•• ••.•%

STAG vs STWD — Which Stock Is More Undervalued in 2026?

STAG scores higher with a 6.8/10 quality rating vs STWD's 6.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

How Do STAG and STWD Valuations Compare?

At $36.73, STAG trades +61.6% above its Bayesian DCF fair value of $14.10, while STWD at $16.80 trades +80.9% above its estimate of $3.20. STWD shows a wider gap between price and intrinsic value.

Quality of Company: STAG vs STWD

STAG earns a Quality of Company score of 6.8/10 compared to STWD's 6.5/10. The scores are closely matched, indicating similar fundamental quality profiles. The QOC score synthesizes 32 signals spanning profitability margins, revenue growth, free cash flow, capital allocation, and leverage.

Value Trap Risk: STAG vs STWD

STAG carries a SAFE value trap risk (24/100) while STWD shows SAFE risk (22/100). Both companies show manageable value trap risk, suggesting their current valuations are not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration.

Both in Real Estate Investment Trusts

Both STAG and STWD operate in Real Estate Investment Trusts, which has 186 stocks tracked by CirclFi. Same-industry comparisons provide the most direct insight into relative valuation since both companies face similar regulatory environments, market dynamics, and competitive pressures. Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN), and ensemble methods (CUCE).

2 of 13 MODELS UNLOCKED

You’re comparing 2 models. 11 more have an opinion.

11 hidden models compare STAG vs STWD differently — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more. Some may disagree with the 2 you see above.

11 additional fair values per stock Full confidence breakdown Live terminal — 5,000+ stocks

Bloomberg Terminal: ~$2,000/mo  ·  FactSet: ~$1,000/mo  ·  CirclFi: $0.90/day

See All 13 Models — $0.90/day

We don’t predict prices. We show you what 13 independent mathematical frameworks say a stock is worth — and let you decide.

See all Real Estate Investment Trusts stocks →