Is SMCI or STX more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. SMCI has a Quality of Company score of 8.2/10 while STX scores 8.6/10.

Which is a better buy — SMCI or STX?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do SMCI and STX valuations compare?

SMCI at $41.30 and STX at $880.72 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

SMCI vs STX Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

SMCI

Computer Hardware

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

Quality

8.2

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$41.30

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

STX

Computer Hardware

Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$880.72

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	SMCI Fair Value	SMCI Upside	STX Fair Value	STX Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$11.07	-73.2%	$39.60	-95.5%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$17.80	-56.9%	$99.14	-88.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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SMCI vs STX — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

STX scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs SMCI's 8.2/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

SMCI currently trades at $41.30 with a QOC of 8.2/10, while STX trades at $880.72 with a QOC of 8.6/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).