Is SM or TALO more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares SM Energy Company (SM) and Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. SM has a Quality of Company score of 8.9/10 while TALO scores 6.1/10.

Which is a better buy — SM or TALO?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do SM and TALO valuations compare?

SM at $30.71 and TALO at $14.67 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

SM vs TALO Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

SM

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

SM Energy Company

Quality

8.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$30.71

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

TALO

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Talos Energy, Inc.

Quality

6.1

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$14.67

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	SM Fair Value	SM Upside	TALO Fair Value	TALO Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$160.64	+423.1%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.45	-98.7%	$1.28	-91.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$20.34	-33.8%	$8.61	-42.2%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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SM vs TALO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

SM scores higher with a 8.9/10 quality rating vs TALO's 6.1/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing SM Energy Company (SM) and Talos Energy, Inc. (TALO) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

SM currently trades at $30.71 with a QOC of 8.9/10, while TALO trades at $14.67 with a QOC of 6.1/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).