Is RDW or SATL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Redwire Corporation (RDW) and Satellogic Inc. (SATL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. RDW has a Quality of Company score of 6.5/10 while SATL scores 4.7/10.

Which is a better buy — RDW or SATL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do RDW and SATL valuations compare?

RDW at $25.90 and SATL at $9.85 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

RDW vs SATL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

RDW

Aerospace & Defense

Redwire Corporation

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$25.90

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

SATL

Aerospace & Defense

Satellogic Inc.

Quality

4.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$9.85

Last close

Models

4/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	RDW Fair Value	RDW Upside	SATL Fair Value	SATL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$4.32	-83.3%	$2.62	-73.4%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.57	-93.9%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$24.98	-3.5%	$9.68	-1.7%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for RDW vs SATL — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

RDW vs SATL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

RDW scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs SATL's 4.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Redwire Corporation (RDW) and Satellogic Inc. (SATL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

RDW currently trades at $25.90 with a QOC of 6.5/10, while SATL trades at $9.85 with a QOC of 4.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).