Is RCAT or RDW more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) and Redwire Corporation (RDW) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. RCAT has a Quality of Company score of 5.9/10 while RDW scores 6.5/10.

Which is a better buy — RCAT or RDW?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do RCAT and RDW valuations compare?

RCAT at $14.15 and RDW at $25.90 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

RCAT vs RDW Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

RCAT

Aerospace & Defense

Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

Quality

5.9

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$14.15

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

RDW

Aerospace & Defense

Redwire Corporation

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$25.90

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	RCAT Fair Value	RCAT Upside	RDW Fair Value	RDW Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$4.68	-66.9%	$4.32	-83.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$1.78	-84.2%	$0.57	-93.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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RCAT vs RDW — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

RDW scores higher with a 6.5/10 quality rating vs RCAT's 5.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) and Redwire Corporation (RDW) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

RCAT currently trades at $14.15 with a QOC of 5.9/10, while RDW trades at $25.90 with a QOC of 6.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).