Is PHM or TOL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. PHM has a Quality of Company score of 9.7/10 while TOL scores 9.4/10.

Which is a better buy — PHM or TOL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do PHM and TOL valuations compare?

PHM at $118.18 and TOL at $138.54 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

PHM vs TOL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

PHM

Operative Builders

PulteGroup, Inc.

Quality

9.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$118.18

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

TOL

Operative Builders

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Quality

9.4

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$138.54

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	PHM Fair Value	PHM Upside	TOL Fair Value	TOL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$83.77	-29.1%	$241.20	+74.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$70.23	-40.6%	$99.14	-28.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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PHM vs TOL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

PHM scores higher with a 9.7/10 quality rating vs TOL's 9.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) and Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

PHM currently trades at $118.18 with a QOC of 9.7/10, while TOL trades at $138.54 with a QOC of 9.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).