Is ONL or ORC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) and Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. ONL has a Quality of Company score of 5.8/10 while ORC scores 9.0/10.

Which is a better buy — ONL or ORC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do ONL and ORC valuations compare?

ONL at $2.98 and ORC at $6.78 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

ONL vs ORC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

ONL

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Orion Properties Inc.

Quality

5.8

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$2.98

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

ORC

Real Estate Investment Trusts

Orchid Island Capital, Inc.

Quality

9.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$6.78

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	ONL Fair Value	ONL Upside	ORC Fair Value	ORC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	—	—	$16.02	+136.3%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$11.07	+63.2%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$2.16	-27.5%	$17.41	+156.7%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$1.01	-65.9%	—	—
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for ONL vs ORC — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

ONL vs ORC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ORC scores higher with a 9.0/10 quality rating vs ONL's 5.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) and Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

ONL currently trades at $2.98 with a QOC of 5.8/10, while ORC trades at $6.78 with a QOC of 9.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).