Is OGS or UGP more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) and Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. OGS has a Quality of Company score of 7.4/10 while UGP scores 9.3/10.

Which is a better buy — OGS or UGP?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do OGS and UGP valuations compare?

OGS at $77.74 and UGP at $5.18 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

OGS vs UGP Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

OGS

Natural Gas Distribution

ONE Gas, Inc.

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$77.74

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

UGP

Natural Gas Distribution

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne

Quality

9.3

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$5.18

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	OGS Fair Value	OGS Upside	UGP Fair Value	UGP Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$151.35	+83.2%	$3.05	-41.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$0.67	-99.2%	$4.07	-21.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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OGS vs UGP — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

UGP scores higher with a 9.3/10 quality rating vs OGS's 7.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) and Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

OGS currently trades at $77.74 with a QOC of 7.4/10, while UGP trades at $5.18 with a QOC of 9.3/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).