Is NCPL or ORIO more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Netcapital Inc. (NCPL) and Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. NCPL has a Quality of Company score of 3.9/10 while ORIO scores 1.8/10.

Which is a better buy — NCPL or ORIO?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do NCPL and ORIO valuations compare?

NCPL at $1.10 and ORIO at $0.94 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

NCPL vs ORIO Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

NCPL

Finance Services

Netcapital Inc.

Quality

3.9

out of 10

Value Trap

WARN

Price

$1.10

Last close

Models

7/13

Active

ORIO

Finance Services

Orion Digital Corp.

Quality

1.8

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$0.94

Last close

Models

8/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	NCPL Fair Value	NCPL Upside	ORIO Fair Value	ORIO Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$0.08	-92.7%	$0.25	-73.0%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$0.47	-57.5%	$1.11	+17.7%
PWERM	Option-Based	$0.89	-19.2%	$3.32	+252.7%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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NCPL vs ORIO — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NCPL scores higher with a 3.9/10 quality rating vs ORIO's 1.8/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Netcapital Inc. (NCPL) and Orion Digital Corp. (ORIO) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

NCPL currently trades at $1.10 with a QOC of 3.9/10, while ORIO trades at $0.94 with a QOC of 1.8/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).