Is MTZ or ORN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) and Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MTZ has a Quality of Company score of 7.4/10 while ORN scores 7.5/10.

Which is a better buy — MTZ or ORN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MTZ and ORN valuations compare?

MTZ at $383.33 and ORN at $14.34 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MTZ vs ORN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MTZ

Engineering & Construction

MasTec, Inc.

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$383.33

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

ORN

Engineering & Construction

Orion Group Holdings, Inc.

Quality

7.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$14.34

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MTZ Fair Value	MTZ Upside	ORN Fair Value	ORN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$25.36	-93.4%	$1.70	-87.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$40.93	-89.3%	$0.18	-98.7%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MTZ vs ORN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

ORN scores higher with a 7.5/10 quality rating vs MTZ's 7.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) and Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (ORN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MTZ currently trades at $383.33 with a QOC of 7.4/10, while ORN trades at $14.34 with a QOC of 7.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).