Is MTR or TPL more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) and Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MTR has a Quality of Company score of 1.7/10 while TPL scores 9.4/10.

Which is a better buy — MTR or TPL?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MTR and TPL valuations compare?

MTR at $3.79 and TPL at $393.00 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MTR vs TPL Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MTR

Oil Royalty Traders

Mesa Royalty Trust

Quality

1.7

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$3.79

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

TPL

Oil Royalty Traders

Texas Pacific Land Corporation

Quality

9.4

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$393.00

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MTR Fair Value	MTR Upside	TPL Fair Value	TPL Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$1.01	-73.4%	$141.28	-64.1%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	—	—	$83.21	-78.8%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$2.85	-33.3%	$208.29	-47.0%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MTR vs TPL — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

TPL scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs MTR's 1.7/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Mesa Royalty Trust (MTR) and Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MTR currently trades at $3.79 with a QOC of 1.7/10, while TPL trades at $393.00 with a QOC of 9.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).