Is MTG or OSG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) and Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MTG has a Quality of Company score of 8.6/10 while OSG scores 6.0/10.

Which is a better buy — MTG or OSG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MTG and OSG valuations compare?

MTG at $25.51 and OSG at $5.52 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MTG vs OSG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MTG

Insurance - Specialty

MGIC Investment Corporation

Quality

8.6

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$25.51

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

OSG

Insurance - Specialty

Octave Specialty Group, Inc.

Quality

6.0

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$5.52

Last close

Models

10/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MTG Fair Value	MTG Upside	OSG Fair Value	OSG Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$43.18	+69.3%	—	—
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$24.67	-3.3%	$9.05	+63.9%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$97.31	+281.5%	$0.54	-90.4%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for MTG vs OSG — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

MTG vs OSG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MTG scores higher with a 8.6/10 quality rating vs OSG's 6.0/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) and Octave Specialty Group, Inc. (OSG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MTG currently trades at $25.51 with a QOC of 8.6/10, while OSG trades at $5.52 with a QOC of 6.0/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).