Is MTDR or NOG more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Matador Resources Company (MTDR) and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MTDR has a Quality of Company score of 8.2/10 while NOG scores 6.5/10.

Which is a better buy — MTDR or NOG?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MTDR and NOG valuations compare?

MTDR at $53.60 and NOG at $21.77 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MTDR vs NOG Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MTDR

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Matador Resources Company

Quality

8.2

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$53.60

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

NOG

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Quality

6.5

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$21.77

Last close

Models

9/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MTDR Fair Value	MTDR Upside	NOG Fair Value	NOG Upside
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$47.25	-11.8%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$50.81	-5.2%	$18.40	-30.6%
First Chicago	Scenario	$179.61	+235.1%	$19.79	-17.3%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$165.83	+209.4%	$103.97	+377.6%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MTDR vs NOG — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

MTDR scores higher with a 8.2/10 quality rating vs NOG's 6.5/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Matador Resources Company (MTDR) and Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MTDR currently trades at $53.60 with a QOC of 8.2/10, while NOG trades at $21.77 with a QOC of 6.5/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).