Is MRCY or NOC more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MRCY has a Quality of Company score of 7.9/10 while NOC scores 9.4/10.

Which is a better buy — MRCY or NOC?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MRCY and NOC valuations compare?

MRCY at $108.11 and NOC at $559.29 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MRCY vs NOC Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MRCY

Aerospace & Defense

Mercury Systems Inc

Quality

7.9

out of 10

Value Trap

LOW

Price

$108.11

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

NOC

Aerospace & Defense

Northrop Grumman Corporation

Quality

9.4

out of 10

Value Trap

—

Price

$559.29

Last close

Models

13/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MRCY Fair Value	MRCY Upside	NOC Fair Value	NOC Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$17.17	-84.1%	$79.05	-85.9%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$17.15	-84.1%	$160.00	-71.4%
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Dynamic NAV	Asset-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

🔒

Unlock Full 13-Model Comparison

Access all valuation models for MRCY vs NOC — including EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, PWERM, and 7 more.

Access Full Analysis — From $27/mo →

MRCY vs NOC — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

NOC scores higher with a 9.4/10 quality rating vs MRCY's 7.9/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) and Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MRCY currently trades at $108.11 with a QOC of 7.9/10, while NOC trades at $559.29 with a QOC of 9.4/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).