Is MPC or SUN more undervalued in 2026?

CirclFi compares Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Sunoco LP (SUN) using 13 institutional-grade valuation models. MPC has a Quality of Company score of 7.4/10 while SUN scores 7.7/10.

Which is a better buy — MPC or SUN?

Compare intrinsic values from 13 independent models against current market prices. CirclFi also calculates Value Trap scores. This is not financial advice — conduct your own analysis.

How do MPC and SUN valuations compare?

MPC at $248.77 and SUN at $64.94 are compared across Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC Spread, First Chicago, Markov DDM, and 8 additional models.

MPC vs SUN Valuation Comparison 2026 — Intrinsic Value Analysis

MPC

Petroleum Refining

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Quality

7.4

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$248.77

Last close

Models

12/13

Active

SUN

Petroleum Refining

Sunoco LP

Quality

7.7

out of 10

Value Trap

SAFE

Price

$64.94

Last close

Models

11/13

Active

Model-by-Model Comparison

Model	Type	MPC Fair Value	MPC Upside	SUN Fair Value	SUN Upside
Bayesian DCF	Intrinsic	$307.16	+23.5%	$6.54	-90.7%
Earnings Power Value	Intrinsic	$56.64	-77.2%	—	—
EROIC Spread	Intrinsic	$66.80	-73.1%	$8.57	-86.8%
First Chicago	Scenario	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Markov DDM	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
ML-RIV	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
PWERM	Option-Based	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Regime Cross-Sectional	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
Sentiment SOTP	Hybrid	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
CUCE Ensemble	Ensemble	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
FTNN Topology	Relative	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%
RCMH-DCF	Intrinsic	$•••.••	••.•%	$•••.••	••.•%

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MPC vs SUN — Which Stock Is More Undervalued?

SUN scores higher with a 7.7/10 quality rating vs MPC's 7.4/10. Both stocks are analyzed daily using SEC EDGAR filings across 13 independent models.

Comparing Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) and Sunoco LP (SUN) across 13 institutional-grade valuation models reveals how each company's intrinsic value stacks up against its market price. CirclFi's engine processes SEC EDGAR 10-K and 10-Q filings, FRED macroeconomic data, and GDELT news sentiment to generate independent fair value estimates daily.

MPC currently trades at $248.77 with a QOC of 7.4/10, while SUN trades at $64.94 with a QOC of 7.7/10.

Both companies are analyzed with models spanning intrinsic (Bayesian DCF, EPV), scenario-based (First Chicago), regime-switching (Markov DDM, RCMH-DCF), machine learning (ML-RIV, FTNN Topology), and ensemble methods (CUCE).